Bitcoin vs. Stocks: Comparing Price Movements and Traits ...
Bitcoin vs. Stocks: Comparing Price Movements ... - Binance
Ultimate glossary of crypto currency terms, acronyms and abbreviations
Instead of hypothetically tracking cryptos, I made an actual $1000 investment, $100 in each of the Top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap as of the 1st of January 2018. I then repeated the experiment on the 1st of January 2019. Think of it as a lazy man's Index Fund (no weighting or rebalancing), less technical, more fun (for me at least), and hopefully still a proxy for the market as a whole - or at the very least an interesting snapshot of the 2019 crypto space. I am trying to keep this project simple and accessible for beginners and those looking to get into crypto but maybe not quite ready to jump in yet. I try not to take sides or analyze, but rather report and document in a detached manner letting the numbers speak for themselves. The Rules: Buy $100 of each the Top 10 cryptocurrencies on January 1st, 2019. Hold only. No selling. No trading. Report monthly. Compare loosely to the 2018 Top Ten Experiment.
Month Twelve and Year End Tally – UP 2% since January 2019
After a strong October, 2019 ended with two straight bloody months, each of the 2019 Top Ten cryptos finishing in the red. Here’s the finally tally after one year: after generous rounding, the 2019 Top Ten ended the year UP 2%. My $1,000 investment on the 1st of January 2019 is now worth $1017. For context, this same group of cryptos was up +114% at the peak in May 2019. The worst month (and the only month in the red) was January 2019. Additionally, the portfolio has fallen well behind the stock market as measured by the S&P 500 (see below).
Ranking and December Winners and Losers
Very little movement in December, with most of the cryptos glued to their positions. Only Stellar and Tron budged, each slipping one place to #11 and #12, respectively. 2019 has been a remarkably static year in terms of Top Ten positioning: most of the coins stuck close to their starting place. This is certainly not the case in the 2018 Top Ten Experiment where coins have fallen and fallen hard. December Winners – Tether, again. As always, when Tether is the best performer it signals a not great month for this portfolio. While not the nightmare it could have been, Tether won the majority of the months in 2019, as you can see in the chart below. Bitcoin finished in second place, down -2% in December. December Losers – In addition to dropping out of the Top Ten, Stellar lost about one-fifth of its value followed by Tron which was down -15%. For those keeping score, here is the 2019 year end tally of which coins had the most monthly wins and losses: Tether had twice as many wins as Bitcoin and BTCSV, which finished tied for second place. Bitcoin SV also finished the most monthly losses, finishing last in four months in 2019.
FINAL YEAR END RESULTS after tracking this group for 2019: Bitcoin far ahead, followed by Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash. Stellar and Ripple at the bottom.
Let’s start with the winners: Bitcoin is up +89% and single-handedly prevented the entire 2019 Top Ten portfolio from finishing in the red (just barely). Bitcoin carved out a healthy lead in 2019: it is well ahead of second place Litecoin (+34%) and third place Bitcoin Cash (+22%). Many others ended 2019 flat or nearly flat. BTCSV, EOS, Ethereum, and of course Tether all finished the year close to where they started. The final three had significant losses: Tron, Ripple, and Stellar finished the year at -33%, -46%, and -61%, respectively. 2019 also saw Tron and Stellar booted out of the Top Ten, replaced by Binance Coin and Tezos. Quite the fall from grace for Stellar, which was the champion of the 2018 Top Ten Crypto Experiment. So there you have it. After one year, three coins in the green, four coins flat, three coins in the red.
Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:
Even though the year ended in a downward trend, the crypto market overall has had an undeniably positive year. One Year (2019) Final Market Cap Figures:
Since January 2019 – the total market cap for crypto has increased +49%
Worst Month – January 2019 ($114B total crypto market cap)
Best Month – June 2019 ($321B total crypto market cap)
The last time the total market cap reached $300B: August 2019
The last time the total market cap reached $200B: November 2019
Bitcoin dominance ticked back up in December and ends 2019 at 68%, a level not seen since September 2019. The range since the beginning of the year has been between a low of 50% in March and a high of 70% in September. The 70% figure in September also marks the Bitcoin dominance high since I started the experiment back in January 2018. The lowest level was 33% way back in February 2018.
Overall return on investment since January 1st, 2019:
After an initial $1000 investment, the 2019 Top Ten Portfolio is worth $1,017, UP about +2% in one year. The humble +2% gain of the 2019 Top Ten portfolio is dwarfed by the overall crypto market’s +49% gain and Bitcoin’s +89% gain. As mentioned earlier, the value of this group of coins was dragged down by the four flat cryptos and the three that finished deep in the red.
Lowest 2019 Top Ten portfolio value: January 2019 ($915)
Highest 2019 Top Ten portfolio value: May 2019 ($2139)
Here’s what the 2019 Ten Ten portfolio has returned throughout the year: The 2018 Top Ten Experiment is faring far, far worse, down -86%. Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom line: after a $2000 investment in both the 2018 and the 2019 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, my portfolios are worth $1,153. That’s down about -42%.
Congratulations to Bitcoin which significantly outperformed the rest of the field to end the first year of the 2019 Top Ten experiment on top. Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash deserve honorable mentions as well, finishing in second and third places. Bitcoin also came out on top after the first two years of the 2018 Top Ten Index Fund Experiment. Unlike the 2018 Top Ten, there were examples of months in 2019 where holding this Top Ten group cryptos outperformed the overall market. This is surprising, as this has not been the case with the other group: for each of the first twenty-four months of the 2018 experiment, the strategy of solely holding the Top Ten Cryptos was a losing approach. That said, the year end difference between a +2% gain with the Top Ten approach vs. the +67% gain for the market overall of course implies that I would have done a lot better if I’d picked different cryptos. Or just stuck with Bitcoin and its +89% gain. In retrospect, it seems an easy/obvious choice, as choices normally do when looking backward. But by tracking the progress of these experiments monthly, I’m able to report another obvious point: crypto is a highly dynamic market. Stellar was the best performer of 2018, for example. And Litecoin looked like it was the crypto to beat for much of 2019, up +300% at the mid-year point. I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. The S&P 500 is now up +29% since the beginning of 2019. My initial $1k investment into crypto would have yielded about +$290 had it been redirected to the S&P.
Although the 2019 Top Ten ended the December fairly flat, the overall market and Bitcoin in particular had a very strong year. The year is staring off with a bang, the market is up, the halvening approaches, and current sentiment towards crypto seems positive – 2020 will no doubt be another interesting year for cryptocurrency.
Thanks and Future of the Experiments:
Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment(s). I hope you’ve found them helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. If you’re interested in the 2018 Top Ten Index Fund Experiment, you can check it out here. As for the future of the experiment:
I’ll continue to hold and will report on the Top Ten Cryptos of 2018.
I’ll continue to hold and will report on the Top Ten Cryptos of 2019.
I’ve also decided to repeat the experiment with the Top Ten Cryptos of 2020.
Cryptocurrency technical analysis: cryptocurrency assets began the rally
Cryptocurrency technical analysis: cryptocurrency assets began the rally Top crypto assets have been in an uptrend this week. One of the reasons for the growth was the positive dynamics in the US stock market. This was facilitated by the decision of the US Federal Reserve to continue the asset repurchase program in current volumes until March 2021. In addition, a number of news has influenced the digital asset market. So, on July 25, Chief Justice of the District Court of the District of Columbia Beryl Howell recognized bitcoin as a form of money and stated that the asset falls under the money laundering law. This decision was made during the $311 million laundering case, where the head of the Coin Ninja crypto project Larry Dean Harmon is the defendant. Also since the beginning of the week, Bitcoin futures trading volumes have shown impressive growth, and the regulated crypto exchange Bakkt has reported closing of record high trading sessions. Also, significant support for the growth of the first cryptocurrency was provided by the massive closing of short positions, which were liquidated on July 28 for more than $500 million. And on July 29 it became known that the Central Bank of the Philippines is now participating in the race to launch the first national cryptocurrency. For this, a special committee will be created that will study the issue of launching the CBDC and the legal norms necessary for its work.
After a rebound from support at $9150, bitcoin quotes easily overcame the $9500 level, which now also acts as support. The 200-day simple moving average (SMA) line passes in this area, as well as the boundaries of the technical analysis “Triangle” (they are marked in pink on the chart below). This allowed Bitcoin to reach the first goal in the form of cluster boundaries of $9,900- $10,000 and $10,400- $10,500. Now the movement is taking place within the consolidation of $10,800- $11,300. In the coming weeks, maintaining the upward momentum will allow BTC quotes to rush to the following targets — $11,580 and $12,000. divergences ”between the highs on the chart and the MACD oscillator. If this scenario is realized, the targets will be the levels of $10,400 and $10,000. Further downward movement looks unlikely, but may lead to a retest of the $9,500- $9,600 area, where whales will most likely prefer to gain new positions in bitcoin. BTC / USD chart, four-hour timeframe On the daily chart of Bitcoin, you can see that there was a breakthrough of the boundaries of the technical analysis model “Triangle” (in the chart below they are marked in orange). From the point of view of technical analysis, a retest of the upper border of this figure should follow in the near future. This can lead to a decrease in the price from the current resistances of $11,000 and the cluster $11,200- $11,300 back to the supports at $10,500 and $10,000. If this scenario is implemented, there is also a chance of Bitcoin falling to the important cluster of $8900 (50% retracement at Fibonacci levels) — $9580. The presence of divergence between the BTC price and the MACD oscillator indicates a high probability of a correction. But at what levels this reversal will occur is not yet known. But until the end of this year, the first cryptocurrency is ready to maintain its growth trend, which can lead to reaching $11,800, $12,500, a cluster of $13,100- $13,350 and $14,000. BTC / USD chart, daily timeframe
Altcoins went up after bitcoin. The ether also shows good growth, the quotes of which continue to confidently rise from the support at $233, below which the 200-day SMA line is located. After overcoming the first target at $280, the ether rushed to the next targets located at the resistance levels of $300 and $320. Now the ETH quotes have returned to the framework of the “Flag” graphical model, which can reduce the volatility of the asset. At the same time, a correctional decline below $320 will allow big capital to gain positions. The support levels will be $300, $280 and $251. The targets for the development of a long-term upward movement are $363.80, $400 and $420. ETH / USD chart, daily timeframe
On the daily chart, Litecoin confidently maintains a positive momentum, which led to a breakout of the boundaries of the Descending Triangle technical analysis model. The upward breakout of the $47.45 level, just above which the 200-day moving average (MA) line is located, allowed LTC to go to the targets of $51.50 (38.2% correction level along the Fibonacci lines) and $56.80. In the medium term, further upward movement may develop to $60.80, $65, $70 and even $83. However, in the event of a correction from the current levels, the whales are likely to gain positions only at the previously tested levels of $50 and $51.50. LTC / USD chart, daily timeframe
Bitcoin Cash, as expected, soared from the borders of the “Triangle” price model (on the chart below the borders are marked with pink lines) to the resistance located at the upper border of the “Horizontal Channel” $200- $272. Then the altcoin continued its way to the $305 area. A correction may develop towards the 200-day SMA line, which is located in the $272 area. But in the long run of the coming months, we can expect a breakout of the $305 level, which will allow Bitcoin Cash to go up to the $356- $368 cluster and further to $400. BCH / USDT chart, daily timeframe
XRP also took advantage of an influx of liquidity, which led to the breakout of the boundaries of the Descending Triangle model. This allowed the asset to break through the boundaries of the “horizontal channel” of $0.18- $0.2050, in the area of which the 200-day MA line passes. As a result, XRP reached its first targets at $0.2360 and $0.2540. In the long term, the bulls will be able to take profits at $0.27, $0.2860 and $0.3080. At the same time, the levels of $0.2040, $0.2360 and $0.2540 in the event of a correction can act as supports for the current XRP quotes. XRP / USD chart, daily timeframe
Binance Coin also did not fail to take advantage of the market situation to break through the resistance in the form of the upper boundary of the “Ascending Triangle” and the level of $18.14. This allowed us to start the long-awaited growth towards the first target in the form of a powerful $19.36– $20 cluster. Maintaining this momentum in the months ahead will lead to the achievement of targets at $21.30, $23.50, $25.80 and $28.20. But before that, the asset may wait for a correction to the levels of $19.36 and $18, where the 200-day SMA line is located. BNB / USDT chart, daily timeframe At the end of this week, we can confidently say that another rally has begun among crypto assets. Moreover, it occurs before the start of the correctional decline on the world stock markets, which some investors warn about. Thus, the cryptocurrency market is becoming a new safe haven for whales, which have preferred to accumulate positions since March. We will not be surprised if this upward movement will last more than one month. Subscribe to our Telegram channel
The power players of consumer finance in the 21st century will be crypto-native companies who build with blockchain technology at their core.
The crypto landscape is still nascent. We’re still very much in the fragmented, unbundled phase of the industry lifecycle. Beyond what Genesis Block is doing, there are signs of other companies slowly starting to bundle financial services into what could be an all-in-one bank replacement. So the key question that this series hopes to answer:
Which crypto-native company will successfully become the bank of the future?
We obviously think Genesis Block is well-positioned to win. But we certainly aren’t the only game in town. In this series, we’ll be doing an analysis of who is most capable of thwarting our efforts. We’ll look at categories like crypto exchanges, crypto wallets, centralized lending & borrowing services, and crypto debit card companies. Each category will have its own dedicated post. Today we’re analyzing big crypto exchanges. The two companies we’ll focus on today are Coinbase (biggest American exchange) and Binance (biggest global exchange). They are the top two exchanges in terms of Bitcoin trading volume. They are in pole position to winning this market — they have a huge existing userbase and strong financial resources. Will Coinbase or Binance become the bank of the future? Can their early success propel them to winning the broader consumer finance market? Is their growth too far ahead for anyone else to catch up? Let’s dive in. https://preview.redd.it/lau4hevpm7f51.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=2c5de1ba497199f36aa194e5809bd86e5ab533d8
The most formidable exchange on the global stage is Binance (Crunchbase). All signs suggest they have significantly more users and a stronger balance sheet than Coinbase. No other exchange is executing as aggressively and relentlessly as Binance is. The cadence at which they are shipping and launching new products is nothing short of impressive. As Tushar Jain from Multicoin argues, Binance is Blitzscaling. Here are some of the products that they’ve launched in the last 18 months. Only a few are announced but still pre-launch.
Binance is well-positioned to become the crypto-powered, all-in-one, bundled solution for financial services. They already have so many of the pieces. But the key question is:
Can they create a cohesive & united product experience?
Binance is strong, but they do have a few major weaknesses that could slow them down.
Traders & Speculators Binance is currently very geared for speculators, traders, and financial professionals. Their bread-and-butter is trading (spot, margin, options, futures). Their UI is littered with depth charts, order books, candlesticks, and other financial concepts that are beyond the reach of most normal consumers. Their product today is not at all tailored for the broader consumer market. Given Binance’s popularity and strength among the pro audience, it’s unlikely that they will dumb down or simplify their product any time soon. That would jeopardize their core business. Binance will likely need an entirely new product/brand to go beyond the pro user crowd. That will take time (or an acquisition). So the question remains, is Binance even interested in the broader consumer market? Or will they continue to focus on their core product, the one-stop-shop for pro crypto traders?
Controversies & Hot Water Binance has had a number of controversies. No one seems to know where they are based — so what regulatory agencies can hold them accountable? Last year, some sensitive, private user data got leaked. When they announced their debit card program, they had to remove mentions of Visa quickly after. And though the “police raid” story proved to be untrue, there are still a lot of questions about what happened with their Shanghai office shut down (where there is smoke, there is fire). If any company has had a “move fast and break things” attitude, it is Binance. That attitude has served them well so far but as they try to do business in more regulated countries like America, this will make their road much more difficult — especially in the consumer market where trust takes a long time to earn, but can be destroyed in an instant. This is perhaps why the Binance US product is an empty shell when compared to their main global product.
Disjointed Product Experience Because Binance has so many different teams launching so many different services, their core product is increasingly feeling disjointed and disconnected. Many of the new features are sloppily integrated with each other. There’s no cohesive product experience. This is one of the downsides of executing and shipping at their relentless pace. For example, users don’t have a single wallet that shows their balances. Depending on if the user wants to do spot trading, margin, futures, or savings… the user needs to constantly be transferring their assets from one wallet to another. It’s not a unified, frictionless, simple user experience. This is one major downside of the “move fast and break things” approach.
BNB token Binance raised $15M in a 2017 ICO by selling their $BNB token. The current market cap of $BNB is worth more than $2.6B. Financially this token has served them well. However, given how BNB works (for example, their token burn), there are a lot of open questions as to how BNB will be treated with US security laws. Their Binance US product so far is treading very lightly with its use of BNB. Their token could become a liability for Binance as it enters more regulated markets. Whether the crypto community likes it or not, until regulators get caught up and understand the power of decentralized technology, tokens will still be a regulatory burden — especially for anything that touches consumers.
Binance Chain & Smart Contract Platform Binance is launching its own smart contract platform soon. Based on compatibility choices, they have their sights aimed at the Ethereum developer community. It’s unclear how easy it’ll be to convince developers to move to Binance chain. Most of the current developer energy and momentum around smart contracts is with Ethereum. Because Binance now has their own horse in the race, it’s unlikely they will ever decide to leverage Ethereum’s DeFi protocols. This could likely be a major strategic mistake — and hubris that goes a step too far. Binance will be pushing and promoting protocols on their own platform. The major risk of being all-in on their own platform is that they miss having a seat on the Ethereum rocket ship — specifically the growth of DeFi use-cases and the enormous value that can be unlocked. Integrating with Ethereum’s protocols would be either admitting defeat of their own platform or competing directly against themselves.
The crypto-native company that I believe is more likely to become the bank of the future is Coinbase (crunchbase). Their dominance in America could serve as a springboard to winning the West (Binance has a stronger foothold in Asia). Coinbase has more than 30M users. Their exchange business is a money-printing machine. They have a solid reputation as it relates to compliance and working with regulators. Their CEO is a longtime member of the crypto community. They are rumored to be going public soon.
Let’s look at what makes them strong and a likely contender for winning the broader consumer finance market.
Different Audience, Different Experience Coinbase has been smart to create a unique product experience for each audience — the pro speculator crowd and the common retail user. Their simple consumer version is at Coinbase.com. That’s the default. Their product for the more sophisticated traders and speculators is at Coinbase Pro (formerly GDAX). Unlike Binance, Coinbase can slowly build out the bank of the future for the broad consumer market while still having a home for their hardcore crypto traders. They aren’t afraid to have different experiences for different audiences.
Brand & Design Coinbase has a strong product design team. Their brand is capable of going beyond the male-dominated crypto audience. Their product is clean and simple — much more consumer-friendly than Binance. It’s clear they spend a lot of time thinking about their user experience. Interacting directly with crypto can sometimes be rough and raw (especially for n00bs). When I was at Mainframe we hosted a panel about Crypto UX challenges at the DevCon4 Dapp Awards. Connie Yang (Head of Design at Coinbase) was on the panel. She was impressive. Some of their design philosophies will bode well as they push to reach the broader consumer finance market.
Early Signs of Bundling Though Coinbase has nowhere near as many products & services as Binance, they are slowly starting to add more financial services that may appeal to the broader market. They are now letting depositors earn interest on USDC (also DAI & Tezos). In the UK they are piloting a debit card. Users can now invest in crypto with dollar-cost-averaging. It’s not much, but it’s a start. You can start to see hints of a more bundled solution around financial services.
Let’s now look at some things that could hold them back.
Slow Cadence In the fast-paced world of crypto, and especially when compared to Binance, Coinbase does not ship very many new products very often. This is perhaps their greatest weakness. Smaller, more nimble startups may run circles around them. They were smart to launch Coinbase Ventures where tey invest in early-stage startups. They can now keep an ear to the ground on innovation. Perhaps their cadence is normal for a company of their size — but the Binance pace creates quite the contrast.
Institutional Focus As a company, we are a Coinbase client. We love their institutional offering. It’s clear they’ve been investing a lot in this area. A recent Coinbase blog post made it clear that this has been a focus: “Over the past 12 months, Coinbase has been laser-focused on building out the types of features and services that our institutional customers need.” Their Tagomi acquisition only re-enforced this focus. Perhaps this is why their consumer product has felt so neglected. They’ve been heavily investing in their institutional services since May 2018. For a company that’s getting very close to an IPO, it makes sense that they’d focus on areas that present strong revenue opportunities — as they do with institutional clients. Even for big companies like Coinbase, it’s hard to have a split focus. If they are “laser-focused” on the institutional audience, it’s unlikely they’ll be launching any major consumer products anytime soon.
Coinbase Wrap Up
At Genesis Block, we‘re proud to be working with Coinbase. They are a fantastic company. However, I don’t believe that they’ll succeed in building their own product for the broader consumer finance market. While they have incredible design, there are no signs that they are focused on or capable of internally building this type of product. Similar to Binance, I think it’s far more likely that Coinbase acquires a promising young startup with strong growth.
Other US-based exchanges worth mentioning are Kraken, Gemini, and Bittrex. So far we’ve seen very few signs that any of them will aggressively attack broader consumer finance. Most are going in the way of Binance — listing more assets and adding more pro tools like margin and futures trading. And many, like Coinbase, are trying to attract more institutional customers. For example, Gemini with their custody product.
Coinbase and Binance have huge war chests and massive reach. For that alone, they should always be considered threats to Genesis Block. However, their products are very, very different than the product we’re building. And their approach is very different as well. They are trying to educate and onboard people into crypto. At Genesis Block, we believe the masses shouldn’t need to know or care about it. We did an entire series about this, Spreading Crypto. Most everyone needs banking — whether it be to borrow, spend, invest, earn interest, etc. Not everyone needs a crypto exchange. For non-crypto consumers (the mass market), the differences between a bank and a crypto exchange are immense. Companies like Binance and Coinbase make a lot of money on their crypto exchange business. It would be really difficult, gutsy, and risky for any of them to completely change their narrative, messaging, and product to focus on the broader consumer market. I don’t believe they would ever risk biting the hand that feeds them. In summary, as it relates to a digital bank aimed at the mass market, I believe both Coinbase and Binance are much more likely to acquire a startup in this space than they are to build it themselves. And I think they would want to keep the brand/product distinct and separate from their core crypto exchange business. So back to the original question, is Coinbase and Binance a threat to Genesis Block? Not really. Not today. But they could be, and for that, we want to stay close to them. ------ Other Ways to Consume Today's Episode:
Cryptocurrency technical analysis: bears drive the crypto market movement
Cryptocurrency technical analysis: bears drive the crypto market movement The negative sentiment continues to reign in the crypto asset market, as indicated by technical and fundamental analyzes. Thus, the drop in demand for many top altcoins caused by the bitcoin correction has already led to the fact that the bears have reached many targets located in the support area. At the same time, several interesting events took place on the crypto market over the past working week. On July 15, it became known that the Chinese authorities will test the digital yuan on the largest supplier of groceries and food delivery Meituan Dianping. The work of the Chinese CBDC is already being tested by McDonald’s corporations, Starbucks and DiDi, the largest taxi aggregator in the Middle Kingdom. On June 16, Samsung announced the start of a partnership with Stellar, within which the developments of the blockchain project will be integrated into the Samsung Blockchain Keystore and Samsung Galaxy smartphones. Also, one cannot fail to note the large-scale hacking of the social network Twitter. On the night of July 15–16, unknown attackers gained access to 130 accounts of prominent businessmen, politicians and opinion leaders. As a result, fake Elon Musk, Changpen Zhao, Bill Gates and Barack Obama posted messages calling for bitcoins to be sent to them, which allowed them to collect 12.86 BTC.
On the four-hour chart, bitcoin develops a very clear movement along the levels from the point of view of technical analysis. After retesting the resistance at $9500 and the lower boundary of the “Triangle” pattern, BTC quotes rushed down to the first target at $9150. If in the coming days the price consolidates below the support level, then in the short term we should expect the development of a downtrend. The closest targets for sellers will be $9000 and $8760 (38.2% correction at Fibonacci levels). At the same time, the persistence of negative sentiment in the stock market will be a signal for the digital currency market, which will continue to fall until the beginning of autumn and the recovery of the business cycle. In the long term, this may lead to a decline to supports at $8330 and $8050. But in order to push the price lower, the bears will need to exert enormous forces. Moreover, from these levels, whales will begin to gain new positions, which will push the bitcoin price up and launch a medium-term growth trend. It will confirm its departure above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) line and the closing of Japanese candlesticks above $9500. In the long term, this will make it possible to achieve medium-term goals in the form of clusters of $9,900- $10,000 and $10,400- $10,500. BTC / USD chart, four-hour timeframe So far, the first cryptocurrency also cannot form a global trend, and this has led to the fact that Bitcoin continues to consolidate movement within the $8900 cluster (50% correction at Fibonacci levels) — $9580. BTC quotes have already dropped below the $9,300 level, which could lead to sales up to $8,900. In the future, we should expect Bitcoin to test the targets of $8600 and $8220, where the 200-day moving average (MA) line and the lower border of the technical analysis model “Triangle” (on the chart below, its borders are marked in orange). For a short time, BTC quotes may even drop to supports at $7400 and $6800, but the forecast for the price rebound back up and the formation of a long-term upward trend seems more likely. This will allow Bitcoin to reach the $10,000 and $10,500 levels, and their subsequent breakout will allow the asset to rush to the $11,000, $11,200- $11,300 and $11,800 levels by the end of the year. BTC / USD chart, daily timeframe
The altcoin market is also developing neutral dynamics so far, but more and more signals appear on the charts that speak in favor of the development of a downward movement. Big capital is not yet ready to acquire digital assets at a price that has grown strongly since March. Ether price develops along the $233 level (11.4% Fibonacci retracement line) and within the framework of consolidation within the $220- $251 range. The drop in the total demand for digital assets will lead to a decrease in the cost of ether towards the first target in the form of consolidation of $195- $200, where the 200-day MA line is located. The further course of trading will be determined by the appearance or absence of demand for cryptocurrencies. In the long term, by the end of the year, we should expect a move above $251 to the resistance areas of $280, $300 and $320. ETH / USD chart, daily timeframe
On the daily chart, Litecoin continues to consolidate above the support boundaries in the form of a $40- $42 cluster, which takes the form of the Andrews Pitchfork technical analysis model. The development of the downward dynamics will lead to the fact that the cost of LTC will drop to $36 and $30.60. But in the medium term, we should expect the quotes to move above the 200-period MA line, which passes in the resistance area of $47.45. Overcoming it in the coming months will allow LTC quotes to soar to the levels of $51.50 (38.2% correctional level along the Fibonacci lines), $56.80, $60.80, $65 and $70. LTC / USD chart, daily timeframe
The Bitcoin fork began to decline after the breakout and a very clear retest of the lower boundary of the technical analysis model “Triangle” (on the chart below, its boundaries are marked in pink). At the same time, the Bitcoin Cash quotes remain within the framework of a broader consolidation in the form of the “Horizontal Channel” $200- $272. However, the priority trading scenario remains a decline in Bitcoin Cash to the $200 level. There is also a high probability of updating the March lows in the $170 and $150 regions. However, in the months ahead, expect BCH to move above $272, where the 200-day SMA line passes, paving the way to the $305, $356 and $400 levels. BCH / USDT chart, daily timeframe
XRP is also under the influence of bears, leading to a decline towards the resistance level at $0.2050. In the coming weeks, the asset may test the support at $0.18, where the lower border of the Descending Triangle model lies. The development of the downward movement will allow XRP to test the support at $0.16 and $0.1470. But in the medium term, a signal for a reversal of the downtrend may appear in the event of a break above the 200-day MA line passing at the level of $0.2360. If this happens, then in the second half of 2020 XRP will be able to reach important targets at the levels of $0.2540, $0.27, $0.2860 and $0.30. XRP / USD chart, daily timeframe
Binance Coin tried to break the bottom of the Ascending Triangle, but failed. The current quotes are supported by the 200-day SMA line and the boundaries of the $15.30- $16 area. Maintaining the downward momentum will allow BNB to rush down to the supports at $13.80 and $11.50. But the most likely scenario looks like a final consolidation above the 200-day MA. This will open the way to the current resistances at $17 and $18.14, as well as the first target in the form of a $19.36- $20 cluster. Testing of the $21.30 and $23.50 levels is also expected in the coming months. BNB / USDT chart, daily timeframe Now more and more crypto assets are showing a willingness to succumb to bearish pressure, which will send quotes into a short decline that will last over the next few weeks. But by the end of the year, we should expect the activity of whales, which will begin to massively buy cryptocurrencies. This will undoubtedly send their value into a long-term upward rally. Subscribe to our Telegram channel
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Cryptocurrency technical analysis: neutral market dynamics before a powerful movement
Cryptocurrency technical analysis: neutral market dynamics before a powerful movement This week, most stock market assets showed a neutral movement, which did not give investors clear signals about the need to take bull or bear positions. This trend was reflected in the cryptocurrency market. So, bitcoin continues to move below the key level of $10,000 and is unlikely to overcome it in the coming days. At the same time, it is worth noting a number of positive factors for the development of the price dynamics of crypto assets. Experts from one of the largest US banks, JPMorgan, presented a review according to which in March, bitcoin successfully passed its first stress test “mostly positive”. It also became known that the Binance crypto exchange launches quarterly BTC / USD futures contracts with leverage up to 125x, which will be available to users of the Binance Futures platform. This positive news can return to the market bulls that are waiting for signals for a successful entry.
From the point of view of technical analysis, on a four-hour chart, BTC quotes are preparing for the development of a powerful movement. This is facilitated by going beyond the current consolidation between support at $9150 and resistance at $9500, in the area of which the line of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) runs. In the future, due to reduced liquidity, traders may begin to open bearish positions provided that bitcoin drops below $9150. In this scenario, BTC can go to targets at $8760 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) and $8330. A deeper decline is still unlikely, because in case of growth of capitalization of the stock market, part of the funds will be directed to the cryptocurrency market. But in the future months, we can expect quotes to go above the key level of $9500, which will allow Bitcoin to rush up to the target clusters of $9900– $10,000 and further to $10,400– $10,500. https://preview.redd.it/zk56mog26h751.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=adf137775c35da072775c21acff5ccac26c73fbd BTC / USD chart, daily timeframe.
Ethereum at the moment broke support at around $233, where the 11.4% Fibonacci retracement line runs, which allowed the altcoin to reach the important mark of $220. The next target for sellers will be the consolidation of $195– $200, below which is the line of the 200-day SMA. From this area, the ether will be ready to resume the upward movement to the first target of $251, overcoming of which will be a key condition for the continued development of the upward impulse. In this case, the goals for Ethereum will be the levels of $280, $300 and $320. https://preview.redd.it/fd3at9986h751.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=2cb20e04b3cd82649cc762f48b6760ba38d59f7e Chart ETH / USD, daily timeframe.
Litecoin confidently reached the goal in the form of the upper boundary of the cluster $40– $42. However, further growth attempts are hampered by the 200-day SMA line, which is located at around $45. A strong impulse to sell can send LTC quotes down to the levels of $36 and $30.60. However, it should be borne in mind that these marks are excellent opportunities for a set of positions for the purchase in the long term. In this case, the first target will be the level of $47.45. By the end of the year, traders will potentially be able to take profits at $52 (38.2% correctional level on the Fibonacci lines), $56.80, $60.80, $65 and $70. https://preview.redd.it/31jo7rmf6h751.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=cf1d4fef4b8f68c97ba22bd84a56f392a030bd4f LTC / USD chart, four hour timeframe.
A bitcoin fork moves within the framework of the “Horizontal Channel” with borders of $200– $272. The asset is trying to gain a foothold above the level of $250 and the 200-day SMA line, which has become an important resistance for him. Going below $200 will cause BCH to drop to $170, and a break above $272 will provide an opportunity to take profits at $305, $356 and $400. Now trading Bitcoin Cash in the range of $200– $272 may bring more risk than profit, so the best strategy for conservative investors is to wait for going beyond this consolidation. https://preview.redd.it/pjwco4ej6h751.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=8a2742d0e16e368335b485c9d135c618bc271d6d BCH / USDT chart, four hour timeframe.
XRP further reduced volatility and went down beyond the boundaries of consolidation of $0.2050– $0.2360, which allowed to reach the target of $0.18 in the moment. Closing the daily candle below this mark will allow the bears to send the asset to $0.16 and $0.1470. However, a breakthrough of the $0.2360 level and the 200-day SMA line will allow XRP quotes to rush further to the target levels of $0.2540, $0.27, $0.2860 and $0.30. https://preview.redd.it/0qainjxl6h751.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=057858229649d84b63611c8fdc78d67b8cb76f17 XRP / USD chart, daily timeframe.
Binance Coin quotes realized the forecast for the development of the downward movement in the region of the lower boundary of the region of $15.30– $16. But bears will need a lot of strength to overcome it, and if successful, they will be able to take profits at $13.80 and $11.50. But in the long run, from these levels, the restoration of BNB quotes to the first goals in the form of levels of $17 and $18.14 may begin. This scenario will be realized provided that an important mark of $16 is broken where the 200-day MA line passes. In the perspective of this year, whales may raise the value of the crypto asset of the Binance exchange to the goals of $19.36, $21.30 and $23.50. https://preview.redd.it/l2devrqo6h751.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=6cff5b3c4d87de03fdd3f27074df500ac761bbb3 BNB / USDT chart, daily timeframe. Top cryptocurrencies have recently shown a neutral trend, but it will not last long. Indeed, usually this is followed by a powerful movement of the crypto market, so traders should “fasten their seat belts” and prepare for active trading in the coming months.
Bitcoins Bitcoins (BTC) the most valuable and talked about cryptocurrency is a digital floating exchange that is most used actively on trades of exchanges. https://preview.redd.it/mtmqalo4fzm41.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=bae8e53adb94963b83e9b8137ae6504e576f50a2 Launched in 2009, it is considered to be a digital firm which has grown wildly over the past years, used mostly for online purchases and an investment There are numerous trading platforms and online exchanges that let you trade bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. But the main thing you have to beware of is trading costs, platform security, and reputation/trust of the bitcoins suppliers. Which place is safe to buy this Bitcoins? Bitcoins, not sponsored by any government. Instead of, you can buy bitcoins from bitcoins mining community or else you can also buy them with dollars or nearly any other currency. As noted, there are few places where you can safely buy this bitcoins CoinBase Coinbase is the largest and most reputed Bitcoin platform functioning in the United States. It is one of the easiest places to start with Bitcoin which offers both an exchange and wallet in one choice. It supports Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum and Litecoin. Once you sign up and connect your bank account, you can easily transfer funds in and out of your account and convert them to Bitcoin and back to dollars at will. You can access it through both the Web app or mobile app. It utilizes two-factor authentication and keeps redundant digital and paper backups of data “in safe deposit boxes and vaults around the world. Coinmama Coinmama has more than one million customers in 188 countries and it functions as a all-in-one exchange and digital wallet that makes it easy to buy Bitcoin and a limited list of additional currencies in the U.S. Dollars or Euros. It has no mobile app, but the website is very high quality \ Robinhood Robinhood initially started as a fee-free stock brokerage and recently expanded into the world of digital currencies. From February 2018, you can buy and sell Bitcoin and other digital currencies completely fee-free on this platform. It supports Bitcoin and Ethereum trades and market data for another 15 currencies. Started its operation in mobile first and recently it added a Web version, so it is best for people comfortable managing money from their phone or tablet. Binance Binance supports a wide range of digital currencies including Bitcoin, Ethereum and its own Binance Coin (BNB). It offers a wide option to trade coins into multiple currencies and supports digital currencies, including EOS, Skycoin, TRON, ICON, Ethereum Classic, Litecoin, Ripple, Stellar Lumens, Bitcoin Cash, plus a bunch of cryptocurrencies. But noted, there are also some bugs reported with this Android mobile app and some users have reported delays withdrawing certain currencies CoinExchange CoinExchange is another low-cost exchange platform as it offers a huge number of coins on its platform, perhaps the biggest lists of coins supported by any platform on this list. On this platform the website looks simple, it comes to the point of security, it is robust and has long-term support for currencies on this platform. Coinbase Pro Coinbase Pro (formerly known as GDAX) looks familiar to those who use Bloomberg terminals or active stock, commodity and option trading platforms. Because GDAX is now part of Coinbase, funds are safe and insured, and the majority of coins are stored in physical form offline to prevent theft. Square Cash Square cash is another mobile app, here you can buy and sell Bitcoin with no fees. Buying and selling free puts this Cash app near the top of the places to buy Bitcoin list. Unlike some digital wallets, you don’t hold your Bitcoin outside of Square, it is held in your Square Cash account on your behalf to sell or withdraw. But if you do want to send your coins to another wallet, Square does offer that feature. Local Bitcoins LocalBitcoins was founded in june 2012 and has set its marketplace from Helsinki, Finland. The site uses an escrow system, and the transfer of bitcoin is made after funds are received in the sellers account. The site is suggested for casual traders seeking more privacy. Paxful Bitcoins Paxful is very popular in the cryptocurrency space. In this platform, you can start immediately with a digital wallet and also you are allowed to buy or sell hassle-free bitcoins. It has both the functions of a website and the mobile apps. Which Is The Correct Time To Buy Bitcoins? To Find out the right time to purchase bitcoins, make use of tools like Bitcoin Wisdom or Cryptowatch. It has a metrics chart which analyse with the other Bitcoin trading sites. These charts will help you understand Bitcoin’s price history across the many global Bitcoin exchanges. #bestplacetobuybitcoin #bitcoinaccount #bitcoinlogin #bitcoinwallet #Bitcoins #Buybitcoin #cryptocurrency #digitalcurrency #paperlesscurrency #paperlessmoney #ethereum #ethereumwallet
Unlike private cryptocurrency wallets that gives you total freedom to use your bitcoins or ether as you see fit, Coinbase has placed some limitations with regards to spending and receiving digital currencies. Under Section 6.4 of the user agreement, for example, Coinbase reserves the right to monitor your account and keep track of where you send and receive cryptocurrency to make sure you're not using it for purposes that fall under what's prohibited. "Prohibited Use and Prohibited Business," which can be found under Appendix 1 of the user agreement, covers a wide array of activities and businesses, such as online abuse, gambling, high-risk businesses, illicit drugs, pornography, and pyramid schemes, to name a few. Violating this can result in the sudden suspension or termination of your Coinbase account . While these prohibitions seem reasonable on the surface, It's still worrisome as it technically prohibits us from using our bitcoins on businesses Coinbase deems high risk. This is a slippery slope in and of itself since cryptocurrency exchanges can very well fall under this umbrella. So if you transfer bitcoins to an exchange site like Binance to purchase other less popular cryptocurrencies like monero, Coinbase can potentially suspend or terminate your account without notice and freeze any in-app assets you may have in the process. First, the “trading pair” (or, “currency pair”) is the product being traded. In the above screenshot the product is ETH, and the “quote currency” is USDThis means that traders are buying and selling the cryptoasset ethereum, priced in dollars .The order book shows all the bids and asks at a given time. A “bid” is the price at which a buyer will buy, and an “ask” is the price at which a seller will sell. The order book also shows the aggregate amount of asks and bids (supply and demand) at a given price, called the “market size.” The “depth chart” is another way to visualize the order book, showing cumulative bid and ask orders over a range of prices. Coupled with volume — or, the total amount traded over a given time period — the depth chart provides a good way to measure “liquidity.” Liquidity describes how easy it is to turn an asset into cash. For instance, if ethereum suddenly saw a massive sell-off, there might not be enough buyers, or enough “liquidity,” for sellers to sell to. Lastly, the “mid-market price” is the price between the best “ask” price and the best “bid” price. It can also be defined as the average of the current bid and ask prices. Coinbase operates both an order book exchange, called the Global Digital Asset Exchange (GDAX), and a brokerage, called Coinbase. More advanced traders (including small institutional players, like cryptoasset hedge funds and family offices) buy and sell cryptoassets on GDAX and determine the mid-market price. Coinbase (the brokerage) then allows retail investors to buy and sell cryptoassets at these mid-market prices, and charges a fee on top. In practice, retail investors can buy and sell directly from Coinbase’s brokerage, like they might buy a stock from Scottrade or Charles Schwab. Coinbase’s brokerage range from roughly 1.5% to 4.0% depending on the user’s payment method; due to increased risk, credit cards come with higher fees than bank transfers. Traders on GDAX pay significantly lower fees. Of note, Coinbase’s brokerage buys cryptoassets from GDAX, instead of from an outside exchange. This gives the company a secure in-house source of liquidity. Given how often exchanges are hacked or otherwise compromised, this is quite important; Coinbase’s brokerage doesn’t have to rely on anyone else for liquidity. There are a lot of exchanges on the market that aren’t as trustworthy as they claim to be, which is one of the reasons I am writing this Coinbase review — to show you how legitimate Coinbase is, among other things. So, is Coinbase legit? Well, the truth is, Coinbase is probably as legit as it gets. Just to operate in 30 states of the U.S. alone, it has over 40 different licenses. This ensures their practices are legal and that they handle your money with integrity. If you’re reading this Coinbase review, the first thing you need to know is whether or not you can use this exchange in your region. Coinbase can be used in many countries to do transactions like sending, receiving or storing funds. However, Coinbase’s buy and sell features are only available in 32 developed countries around the world. So, be sure to check whether you can use Coinbase from your country before you attempt to sign up.
All credit goes to @TheCryptoFam's twitter thread, but I found it to be a great summary and wanted to share it with our community. 1) THE BITCOIN BEAR MARKET: A brief thread https://imgur.com/DexgbyB 2) Bitcoin reached its all time high (ATH) on December 17th of 2017, the exact date that CME futures trading began. In retrospect, it is now obvious that smart/institutional money was stocking up before that date. Hindsight is 20/20. https://imgur.com/ifJ335e 3) Since 12/17/17, Bitcoin has been in a bear market. The remainder of this analysis will focus on patterns observed during this market downturn, as well as signals for when it might come to an end. https://imgur.com/BPu5mmj 4) The bear market has consisted of 3 major drives down, represented by black arrows in the chart below. We are currently in the midst of the 3rd drive down, awaiting a bottom. More on that later. https://imgur.com/Wb8Q4xa 5) Each of these drives down have followed a very similar pattern. First, you see a fake-out dump (orange lines), then a failed rally (grey lines), then finally the major dump (blue lines). https://imgur.com/vffEyu3 6) Within this pattern, there are important details. Each greater leg down is made on lower selling volume, marked by black lines at the bottom of the chart. This chart is a composite of the volume from Binance, Bitfinex, Bitstamp, and Coinbase. https://imgur.com/EBvt8iX 7) Not only is selling volume lower, but the drops have been less severe. Each component of each leg down is less steep than the previous leg down. RSI, a momentum indicator, also shows selling has been less extreme. The trend is “flattening out” https://imgur.com/lhPaubI 8) So what does this mean? In our opinion, the bear trend is running out of gas. Bears/whales/market makers held a great supply of BTC that they pumped until 12/17/17. As they sell BTC and drive price down, their share of the total market supply is decreasing. https://imgur.com/EhoXGln 9) This is a very simplified explanation of how markets work. A great deal of the total BTC supply is not traded. Some is lost forever in idle or forgotten wallets. Other Bitcoin is hodled by strong hands who never sell. This gives MMs greater power with their share of BTC https://imgur.com/kFG5Uh1 10) Now we can begin to understand why each leg down is less severe. Because MMs/whales hold less BTC at the start of each leg down, their power to lower the price with market sells is reduced. https://imgur.com/yEv9dKK 11) All of these signs point to an imminent end to the trend. Bounces are not going as high, while bottoms are not as low. The black lines show this convergence. It is almost time for whales to begin accumulating their BTC again, rather than distributing/taking profits. https://imgur.com/qoyPcVj 12) Again, this is a simplified explanation of how markets work, but it’s more useful than strictly following fundamentals or news intended to deceive. Hopefully the market patterns make more sense to you now. The chart says we’re almost ready to go up! https://imgur.com/xCBVKVt
I somehow created an account and now I can trade with Metatrader 4 ?? wtf am I doing ?
Hey, posted this on cryptocurrency and didn't get any useful responsesy maybe you guys can help me ? I somehow created an Account on LH-Crypto. I don't really know what i'm doing. I then downloaded Metatrader 4. Its complicated looking program. I can open long and short positions on pretty much anything. Gold, Stocks, Forex and I think they use my Bitcoin for it. I sent bitcoin to the LH-Crypto account address. So I think everything is working as intenden. I have a few questions now:
I suspect that LH-Crypto is my Broker and thats why I can trade everything with bitcoin ? is that right ?
Is every Broker on the same "Market" ? Like if I trade gold, is my trade on the same "Market" someone else trading gold ?
How do I know on which Market I am trading ? If I type in "Gold" on https://www.tradingview.com/ it shows me what it is, the most traded thing being a stock on NYSE. If I trade Gold with Metatrader 4 and an account from LH-Crypto, am I trading Gold on NYSE ?
Are there other, maybe bigger or better Brokers that I can use to do the same thing (Like a common one everybody uses, the coinbase equivalent of Brokers so to speak. Does it even matter what I use ?)
If my Broker is LH-Crypto or any other broker for that matter. Am I still trading btc for example in the same "pool" as everyone else ?? or can they like manipulate their own btc charts (binance, bitmex, and all the exchanges have their own "prices" right ?) Or in other words, on what exchange am I trading BTC / USD when I use Metatrader 4 & LH-Crypto ??
Note: the URLs below are intentionally not links, because reddit blocks posts with some links; copy & paste the URL into a new browser window. Let me know if one of the offers is expired; I can probably get a new one. American Express Platinum, or any other Amex card: refer.amex.us/STEPHGa64I That's a universal Amex link; click "View all Cards with a Referral Offer" or "Explore other options" to see all the cards; or see direct links below. Chase Freedom Unlimited or Chase Freedom Flex: referyourchasecard.com/18f/9J0WMSJMOF Discover It: refer.discover.com/s/aajw3s Discover It Miles: refer.discover.com/s/discoverp Service Credit Union $75 bonus: servicecu.royalreferralcenter.com/register?token=5fa459925bc23&via=tw (first join ACC (use code "SERVICE" to waive $5 fee) to be eligible: americanconsumercouncil.org/membership.asp) One Finance (savings accounts, get $20 when deposit $100, $5 when install app, $5 when use debit card first time): share.onefinance.com/invite/StephenG/c826f427 SoFi Money: sofi.com/invite/money?gcp=4c18ffe3-fa7c-4d78-8683-d6376e8fa364 SoFi student loan refi, or personal loan: sofi.com/share/3156511 Yotta Savings: withyotta.page.link/akhdD5RZ2QYsnyBx5 code: STEPHEN8 PrizePool Savings: links.getprizepool.com/Nq6wtv7Wvab code: MB13B (gives you 10% bonus on winnings; enter the code in the app when creating an account, on the page that asks for your date of birth) Fluz: joinfluz.app.link/FLUZ77 Chase Checking account: accounts.chase.com/raf/share/355088785 Plastiq: try.plastiq.com/1048197 DCU (Digital Federal Credit Union): send me a message with your email address E*TRADE brokerage: refer.etrade.net/etrade7 Webull brokerage app: act.webull.com/promotion/invitation/share.html?inviteCode=GtykbApaHMKm Robinhood: share.robinhood.com/stepheg643 Firstrade brokerage (get a free stock): share.firstrade.com/StephenVKOZ Juno Bank: bankonjuno.com/referral/STEPsLeD Schwab Brokerage: schwab.com/public/schwab/nn/promo/refer-prospect.html?refrid=REFER3S78B or code: REFER3S78B TurboTax Online 20% off: fbuy.io/qv59t76z tastyworks brokerage: start.tastyworks.com/#/login?referralCode=ZHB8MT9VT4 Instacart: inst.ct/Y3BSZzgzb3FQ or code: IUSER54F18E Uber: uber.com/invite/pezyj or code: pezyj Uber Eats promo code ($7 off first order): eats-pezyj Lyft: sg1234567 Square Cash (Cash App): cash.me/app/XXTBXJR (get $15 when you send $5 to someone) Away (luggage): refer.awaytravel.com/v/away_11 Brinks prepaid mastercard & 5% savings account: brinksprepaidmastercard.com/get-a-prepaid-card/?aid=B_RAF_1&site_id=RAF_OAC_URL&uref=9079942135 ACE Elite prepaid card & 5% savings account: aceelitecard.com/get-a-prepaid-card/?aid=ACE_RAF_1&site_id=RAF_OAC_URL&uref=8304960094 Netspend prepaid card & 5% savings account: mynetspendcard.com?uref=1394182596 Personal Capital: share.personalcapital.com/x/XD87nM TradingView: tradingview.com/chart?offer_id=10&aff_id=13733 Pei app: getpei.com/invite enter code: imkbip Dosh app: link.dosh.cash/STEPHEG1 or code: STEPHEG1 Drop app: b.ewd.io/code?c=0us2i or code: 0us2i Ibotta app: ibotta.com/az36ka or code: az36ka Checkout 51 app: checkout51.app.link/OhdB48ik8Q Fetch Rewards app: fetchrewards.com code: J5BCY (enter in app) Shopkick app: getsk.co/cool014385 or code: COOL014385 ReceiptPal app: app.adjust.com/oqlq9t9?label=8RT7PR2 Grubhub: fbuy.me/kT5Mu DoorDash: drd.sh/CFo8LW/ Freshly: send me a message and I'll give you a link OhmConnect: ohm.co/ohmg1 BeFrugal: befrugal.com/referral/?ref=GASGOAF Affinityy: affinityy.com/?ref=MTY2ODM= TopCashBack: topcashback.com/ref/sgt7 Extrabux: extrabux.com/5cb27229d7 MrRebates: mrrebates.com?refid=484053 Rakuten / Ebates rakuten.com/717813?eeid=28187 Giving Assistant: givingassistant.org/?rid=QjGx2mHU9l iConsumer: iconsumer.com/tkJgfiO or code: tkJgfiO Swagbucks: swagbucks.com/refesg77 SimplyBestCoupons: simplybestcoupons.com/?refid=60199 rebatesme: rebatesme.com/refer?uid=134250 Fuel Rewards (Shell): fuelrewards.com/fuelrewards/welcome.html?RefId=e7908f3dce4d47f39bbd46ff4e38acb6 GoCashBack: www.gocashback.com/1860530 or code JBYYVF Fold: use.foldapp.com/Cv9HMujj (buy gift cards and get bitcoin back) Lolli: lolli.com/ref/PjzxLWQJNg (portal that pays bitcoin) Goodshop (cashback portal): www.goodshop.com/invite/4505068 (gives you a bonus based on cashback that people you refer earn) Groupon: groupon.com/visitor_referral/h/4d0155fb-db60-413e-87ac-4fc26ef7fe05 Zola (create a registry and buy $50 from it, get $50 credit): www.zola.com/invite/zola20200414031329708 AwardWallet: awardwallet.com/?refCode=3cdbq14qs7 Supercuts (we each get $5 off): supercutsrewards.com/short.php?code=1H1F DraftKings: draftkings.com/sgdrk Ace Rewards (Ace Hardware): acehardwareapp.page.link/Fc9u Dropbox: db.tt/OQV2OLnKdR Boxed: boxed.com/invite/6IG3R simplehuman.com ($10 off $20): rwrd.io/hi6ci9l?c Purple mattress: share.purple.com/x/pGCY9k PlushBeds: refer.plushbeds.com/Stephen6 Gemini exchange: gemini.com/share/o24jdk Coinbase: send me a message Coinbase Earn (free EOS): coinbase.com/earn/eos/invite/pm1695kv Coinbase Earn (free XLM): coinbase.com/earn/xlm/invite/vr821z4m Voyager: go.onelink.me/4gTreferral?af_sub5=STESS7 or code: STESS7 (crypto broker; trade $100 and both people get $25 in BTC) LVL exchange ($10 free bitcoin): lvl.co/qswwx6qb or invite code qswwx6qb bitFlyer exchange (no bonus for you, gives me a small bonus): bitflyer.com/en-us?affi=n5sshohk Binance.US exchange (for US residents): binance.us/?ref=35012844 or Referral ID: 35012844 ShapeShift: signup.shapeshift.com/?mwr=8589-e0bb8d9b Bittrex exchange (no bonus for you, gives me 10% of your commissions): bittrex.com/Account/Register?referralCode=FYS-2DK-G23 or code FYS-2DK-G23 Paxful (trade bitcoin for discounted gift cards, etc): paxful.com/?r=VX5Ywx44LkA Purse.io: purse.io/?_r=5MyAl0 (discounts at amazon if pay with bitcoin; referral bonus $5 if spend $100) p2pb2b exchange: p2pb2b.io/referral/1a955c5a-7f08-43f5-8367-bfa524c4bd88 freebitcoin (faucet / dice game): freebitco.in/?r=9293862 TREZOR hardware wallets: shop.trezor.io/?offer_id=10&aff_id=1230 Ledger hardware wallets: ledger.com?r=4ef2e7aeee27 Or if you just want to send me a donation: BTC: 3G4JZx3KgT7djgGk6KUbUn7cZ31BbtYf2r LTC: LR6hgNSy2ZkS7PHtAm1xcJmPy6YyQJha7d ETH: 0x6fb827db4969d762b62345168ef559CF8194680B XMR: 48WwtRnERgMA3pHjDVp1PpZn1eDs4tYL2adghbBJ8zdp3MjoyMZtTXQ2dKAq465jVgJdQvDp5eShkbnCmfj8vJB1MqJmPRZ Card-specific American Express links (also see universal Amex link above, if one of these doesn't work): Personal Amex cards: Amex Blue Cash Preferred Amex Blue Cash Everyday Amex Cash Magnet Amex Everyday Amex Everyday Preferred Amex Gold Amex Platinum Amex Delta Gold SkyMiles Amex Marriott Bonvoy Brilliant Amex Green Amex Delta Platinum SkyMiles Amex Hilton Surpass Amex Hilton Honors Aspire Amex Hilton Honors Amex Delta Blue SkyMiles Amex Delta Reserve Business Amex cards: Amex Business Gold Rewards Amex Business Platinum Amex Blue Business Plus (BBP) Amex Blue Business Cash Amex Business Green Rewards Amex Delta Platinum Business Amex Delta Gold Business Amex Delta Reserve Business Amex Hilton Honors Business Amex Plum Amex Lowe's Business Rewards Amex Marriott Bonvoy Business Amex Amazon Business Prime (I no longer have this card open, but the link still shows a bonus for you)
Instead of hypothetically tracking cryptos, I made an actual $1000 investment, $100 in each of the Top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap as of the 1st of January 2018. Think of it as a lazy man's Index Fund (no weighting or rebalancing), less technical, more fun (for me at least), and hopefully still a proxy for the market as a whole - or at the very least an interesting snapshot of the 2018/2019 crypto space. I’m trying to keep it simple and accessible for beginners and those looking to get into crypto but maybe not quite ready to jump in yet. I have also started a parallel project: on January 1st, 2019, I repeated the experiment, purchasing another $1000 ($100 each) into the new Top Ten cryptos as of January 1st 2019.
Buy $100 of each the Top 10 cryptocurrencies on January 1st, 2018. Run the experiment two years. Hold only. No selling. No trading. Report monthly.
Just two cryptos moved this month. Stellar dropped from #8 to #9 and Bitcoin Cash moved up two spots from #6 to #4 after a very strong April. NEM, Dash, and IOTA are Top Ten dropouts - they have been replaced by EOS, Binance Coin, and Tether.NEM holds the dubious distinction of being the first crypto in the experiment to have fallen out of the Top Twenty. April Winners - Here's something you don't see everyday: Bitcoin Cashabsolutely crushed the field this month, up +49% in April. In fact, this was the first time Bitcoin Cash has ended a month outperforming its Top Ten peers since I began the experiment 16 months ago. Bitcoin finished second this month, up nearly +30% April Losers - Stellar had a tough April, finishing the month down -8% and dropping a place in the ranking. The rest were either flat or down a few percentage points - no big deal for crypto. For those keeping score, here is tally of which coins have the most monthly wins and loses during the first 16 months of this experiment. Most monthly wins (3): Litecoin. Most monthly loses (4): NEM. Special mention goes to Bitcoin Cash which finally logged its first win this month.
Overall update – Back and forth between Bitcoin and Stellar continues. NEM and IOTA at the bottom.
Stellar's tough month dropped it from overall experiment champion to third best performing crypto over the life of the experiment. Bitcoinregained the lead, now 'only' down -60% from January 2018 and now Litecoin has passed Stellar as well. Bitcoin Cash's phenomenal April allowed it to barely crawl out of the cellar, but is still down -90% since the beginning of the experiment. NEMis the worst overall performer (down -94%) followed by IOTA which is down -91%. My initial $100 investment in NEM is worth just $5.91 and IOTA is worth $8.21.
Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:
The total crypto market cap increased over $25B in April, up +18% from last month's report. It is down -70% since the beginning of the experiment, January 1st, 2018. At $171B, the market is at its highest point since November 2018.
Bitcoin dominance jumped quite a bit in April, now standing at nearly 55%. This is the highest point Bitcoin dominance has reached so far in the experiment.
Overall return on investment from January 1st, 2018:
My Top Ten of 2018 portfolio increased nearly $15 in total value this month. Another tiny gain, but noteworthy, as ending three months in a row in positive territory is a first so far in the experiment. If I cashed out today, my $1000 initial investment would return about $181, down -82%. Another rare event: I have almost always ended months setting a record low in terms of value over the life of the experiment. April marks the third month in a row where this has not the case.
Recording three solid months in a row is new territory for this experiment. While it feels like the bottom could drop out again any day, the string of positive months keeps increasing. Of note this month is the record high Bitcoin dominance, the highest since the experiment started in January 2018. This, coupled with the rise in the crypto market cap, shows that while enthusiasm for crypto is growing, it is focused on the most well know options - people are cautious at the moment about investing in altcoins, but seem to be more willing to invest in Bitcoin. On a related note, Bitcoin reclaimed the overall lead this month in a convincing manner - it is 7% ahead of second place Litecoin. The experiment's focus of solely holding the Top Ten continues to be a losing proposition. While the overall market is down -70% from January 2018, the cryptos that began 2018 in the Top Ten are down -82% over the same period of time. At no point in the experiment has this investment strategy worked: the initial 2018 Top Ten continue to under-perform compared to the market overall. The 12% difference is up significantly from last month's 8% difference. It is the widest gap so far and was also seen at one point last year (September 2018). I'm also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. After a pretty significant December dip, the stock market continues to rebound. It's up over +10% since the beginning of 2018, so that $1k investment I threw into crypto would have yielded +$100.
February, March, and now April have been quietly solid months for crypto. I personally would be quite satisfied to have these slow, steady $15B-$25B monthly gains for a while instead of the volatile periods, but it does feel a bit like the calm before the storm. Thanks for reading and the support for the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports.
Instead of hypothetically tracking cryptos, I made an actual $1000 investment, $100 in each of the Top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap as of the 1st of January 2018. Think of it as a lazy man's Index Fund (no weighting or rebalancing), less technical, more fun (for me at least), and hopefully still a proxy for the market as a whole - or at the very least an interesting snapshot of the 2018/2019 crypto space. I’m trying to keep it simple and accessible for beginners and those looking to get into crypto but maybe not quite ready to jump in yet. I have also started a parallel project: on January 1st, 2019, I repeated the experiment, purchasing another $1000 ($100 each) into the new Top Ten cryptos as of January 1st 2019. Spoiler alert: it's a night and day difference between the two experiments.
Buy $100 of each the Top 10 cryptocurrencies on January 1st, 2018. Run the experiment two years. Hold only. No selling. No trading. Report monthly.
Month Seventeen - Down 72%
May was an incredibly strong month in crypto - we've now seen four strong months in a row, but this month was especially ridiculous. All 10 coins are in the green, a rarity since I started this thing in January 2018: it's only happened twice before in seventeen months, once in April 2018 and once in February 2019. The poorest performer (Stellar) was still +36%.
Despite the strong month, more of the 2018 Top Ten lost than gained ground. Stellar and Dash both dropped a spot and Cardano dropped two slots (#10 to #12), sliding out of the Top Ten. NEM clawed its way back one place to #20. NEM, Dash, IOTA, and Cardano are Top Ten dropouts - they have been replaced by EOS, Binance Coin, Tether, and BTSV. May Winners - For the second month in a row, Bitcoin Cash dominated, ending May up +71%. An encouraging sign for BCH considering April was the first month it had pulled out a monthly victory. NEM finished a close second this month, up nearly +70% May Losers - Like last month, Stellar again was the worst performer. Although it was up +36% in May, it couldn't keep up with its peers, dropping one place in the rankings. For those keeping score, here is tally of which coins have the most monthly wins and loses during the first 17 months of this experiment. Most monthly wins (3): Litecoin. Most monthly loses (4): a tie between NEM and Stellar.
Overall update – Bitcoin pulling away from the pack, NEM and IOTA still at the bottom.
Bitcoin made up a ton of ground in May. It started ended April down -60% (from January 2018) and now is down -35%. Litecoin is a distant second at -50% since the experiment began. Despite a strong month, NEM is still the worst overall performer (down -90%) followed by IOTA which is down -86%. My initial $100 investment in NEM is worth just $9.96.
Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:
The total crypto market cap increased an impressive $100B in May, up almost +60% from last month's report. It is down -53% since the beginning of the experiment, January 1st, 2018, but somehow the fact that it's approaching 50% feels like a milestone of sorts. At $272B, the market is at its highest point since August 2018.
Bitcoin dominance inched up again in May, now standing at nearly 56%. This is the highest point Bitcoin dominance has reached so far in the experiment.
Overall return on investment from January 1st, 2018:
My Top Ten of 2018 portfolio increased about $100 in total value this month, the second highest month-to-month increase in the history of the experiment. I can now mark four months in a row with increasing total values, a new record in the experiment. If I cashed out today, my $1000 initial investment would return about $280, down -72%.
Perspective. Perspective was something I was after when I started this experiment. With crypto excitement starting to build, this experiment has provided me with a bit of context. Crypto having a good month? Great, but still down -72% since January 2018. Bitcoin making headlines? Yes, but still down -35% in the last seventeen months. Good news all around, but still a ways to go. Still, I have to recognize the fact that this is now the fourth solid month in a row, unprecedented thus far in the experiment. Once again this month marks a record high in Bitcoin dominance, the highest since the experiment started in January 2018, almost 56%. It's fair to say Bitcoin is driving the crypto market rally and people are still taking a cautious approach when it comes to altcoins. Bitcoin continues to increase its overall lead. After seventeen months, it is now 15% ahead of second place Litecoin in terms of return on initial investment. The experiment's focus of solely holding the Top Ten looks like an especially poor strategy this month. While the overall market is down -53% from January 2018, the cryptos that began 2018 in the Top Ten are down -72% over the same period of time. That nearly 20% difference is the widest gap of the experiment so far and significantly more than last month's record 12% difference. At no point has this investment strategy worked: the initial 2018 Top Ten have under-performed every single month compared to the market overall. I'm also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. May was rough for the stock market compared to crypto markets. The S&P 500 is now up +3% since the beginning of 2018. Much better than being down -72% in crypto, but that initial $1k investment I put into crypto would have yielded only +$30 had it been redirected to the S&P.
February, March, April, and now May have been solid months for crypto. May has seen more positive press coverage and excitement than has been seen in a while. With Bitcoin touching $9k this month, is $10k within reach? Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for my parallel project:where I repeated the experiment, purchasing another $1000 ($100 each) of the new Top Ten cryptos as of January 1st 2019.
Elaborating on Datadash's 50k BTC Prediction: Why We Endorse the Call
As originally published via CoinLive I am the Co-Founder at CoinLive. Prior to founding Coinlive.io, my area of expertise was inter-market analysis. I came across Datadash 50k BTC prediction this week, and I must take my hats off to what I believe is an excellent interpretation of the inter-connectivity of various markets. At your own convenience, you can find a sample of Intermarket analysis I've written in the past before immersing myself into cryptos full-time. Gold inter-market: 'Out of sync' with VIX, takes lead from USD/JPY USD/JPY inter-market: Watch divergence US-Japan yield spread EUUSD intermarket: US yields collapse amid supply environment Inter-market analysis: Risk back in vogue, but for how long? USD/JPY intermarket: Bulls need higher adj in 10-y US-JP spread The purpose of this article is to dive deeper into the factors Datadash presents in his video and how they can help us draw certain conclusions about the potential flows of capital into crypto markets and the need that will exist for a BTC ETF. Before I do so, as a brief explainer, let's touch on what exactly Intermarket analysis refers to: Intermarket analysis is the global interconnectivity between equities, bonds, currencies, commodities, and any other asset class; Global markets are an ever-evolving discounting and constant valuation mechanism and by studying their interconnectivity, we are much better positioned to explain and elaborate on why certain moves occur, future directions and gain insights on potential misalignments that the market may not have picked up on yet or might be ignoring/manipulating. While such interconnectivity has proven to be quite limiting when it comes to the value one can extract from analyzing traditional financial assets and the crypto market, Datadash has eloquently been able to build a hypothesis, which as an Intermarket analyst, I consider very valid, and that matches up my own views. Nicolas Merten constructs a scenario which leads him to believe that a Bitcoin ETF is coming. Let's explore this hypothesis. I will attempt to summarize and provide further clarity on why the current events in traditional asset classes, as described by Datadash, will inevitably result in a Bitcoin ETF. Make no mistake, Datadash's call for Bitcoin at 50k by the end of 2018 will be well justified once a BTC ETF is approved. While the timing is the most challenging part t get right, the end result won't vary. If one wishes to learn more about my personal views on why a BTC ETF is such a big deal, I encourage you to read my article from late March this year. Don't Be Misled by Low Liquidity/Volume - Fundamentals Never Stronger The first point Nicholas Merten makes is that despite depressed volume levels, the fundamentals are very sound. That, I must say, is a point I couldn't agree more. In fact, I recently wrote an article titled TheParadox: Bitcoin Keeps Selling as Intrinsic Value Set to Explode where I state "the latest developments in Bitcoin's technology makes it paradoxically an ever increasingly interesting investment proposition the cheaper it gets." However, no article better defines where we stand in terms of fundamentals than the one I wrote back on May 15th titled Find Out Why Institutions Will Flood the Bitcoin Market, where I look at the ever-growing list of evidence that shows why a new type of investors, the institutional ones, looks set to enter the market in mass. Nicholas believes that based on the supply of Bitcoin, the market capitalization can reach about $800b. He makes a case that with the fundamentals in bitcoin much stronger, it wouldn't be that hard to envision the market cap more than double from its most recent all-time high of more than $300b. Interest Rates Set to Rise Further First of all, one of the most immediate implications of higher rates is the increased difficulty to bear the costs by borrowers, which leads Nicholas to believe that banks the likes of Deutsche Bank will face a tough environment going forward. The CEO of the giant German lender has actually warned that second-quarter results would reflect a “revenue environment [that] remains challenging." Nicholas refers to the historical chart of Eurodollar LIBOR rates as illustrated below to strengthen the case that interest rates are set to follow an upward trajectory in the years to come as Central Banks continue to normalize monetary policies after a decade since the global financial crisis. I'd say, that is a correct assumption, although one must take into account the Italian crisis to be aware that a delay in higher European rates is a real possibility now. !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/947/content_2018-05-30_1100.png) Let's look at the following combinations: Fed Fund Rate Contract (green), German 2-year bond yields (black) and Italy's 10-year bond yield (blue) to help us clarify what's the outlook for interest rates both in Europe and the United States in the foreseeable future. The chart suggests that while the Federal Reserve remains on track to keep increasing interest rates at a gradual pace, there has been a sudden change in the outlook for European rates in the short-end of the curve. While the European Central Bank is no longer endorsing proactive policies as part of its long-standing QE narrative, President Mario Draghi is still not ready to communicate an exit strategy to its unconventional stimulus program due to protectionism threats in the euro-area, with Italy the latest nightmare episode. Until such major step is taken in the form of a formal QE conclusion, interest rates in the European Union will remain depressed; the latest drastic spike in Italy's benchmark bond yield to default levels is pre-emptive of lower rates for longer, an environment that on one hand may benefit the likes of Deutsche Bank on lower borrowing costs, but on the other hand, sets in motion a bigger headache as risk aversion is set to dominate financial markets, which leads to worse financial consequences such as loss of confidence and hence in equity valuations. !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/948/content_2018-05-30_1113.png) Deutsche Bank - End of the Road? Nicholas argues that as part of the re-restructuring process in Deutsche Bank, they will be facing a much more challenging environment as lending becomes more difficult on higher interest rates. At CoinLive, we still believe this to be a logical scenario to expect, even if a delay happens as the ECB tries to deal with the Italian political crisis which once again raises the question of whether or not Italy should be part of the EU. Reference to an article by Zerohedge is given, where it states: "One day after the WSJ reported that the biggest German bank is set to "decimate" its workforce, firing 10,000 workers or one in ten, this morning Deutsche Bank confirmed plans to cut thousands of jobs as part of new CEO Christian Sewing's restructuring and cost-cutting effort. The German bank said its headcount would fall “well below” 90,000, from just over 97,000. But the biggest gut punch to employee morale is that the bank would reduce headcount in its equities sales and trading business by about 25%." There is an undeniably ongoing phenomenon of a migration in job positions from traditional financial markets into blockchain, which as we have reported in the past, it appears to be a logical and rational step to be taken, especially in light of the new revenue streams the blockchain sector has to offer. Proof of that is the fact that Binance, a crypto exchange with around 200 employees and less than 1 year of operations has overcome Deutsche Bank, in total profits. What this communicates is that the opportunities to grow an institution’s revenue stream are formidable once they decide to integrate cryptocurrencies into their business models. One can find an illustration of Deutsche Bank's free-fall in prices below: !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/946/content_2018-05-30_1052.png) Nicholas takes notes of a chart in which one can clearly notice a worrying trend for Italian debt. "Just about every other major investor type has become a net seller (to the ECB) or a non-buyer of BTPs over the last couple of years. Said differently, for well over a year, the only marginal buyer of Italian bonds has been the ECB!", the team of Economists at Citi explained. One can find the article via ZeroHedge here. !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/953/content_2018-05-30_1451.png) Equities & Housing to Suffer the Consequences Nicholas notes that trillions of dollars need to exit these artificially-inflated equity markets. He even mentions a legendary investor such as George Soros, who has recently warned that the world could be on the brink of another devastating financial crisis, on lingering debt concerns in Europe and a strengthening US dollar, as a destabilizing factor for both the US's emerging- and developed-market rivals. Ray Dalio, another legend in the investing world and Founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, "has ramped up its short positions in European equities in recent weeks, bringing their total value to an estimated $22 billion", MarketWatch reports. Nicholas extracts a chart by John Del Vecchio at lmtr.com where it illustrates the ratio between stocks and commodities at the lowest in over 50 years. As the author states: "I like to look for extremes in the markets. Extremes often pinpoint areas where returns can be higher and risk lower than in other time periods. Take the relationship between commodities and stocks. The chart below shows that commoditieshavennot been cheaper than stocks in a generation. We often hear this time it is different” to justify what’s going on in the world. But, one thing that never changes is human nature. People push markets to extremes. Then they revert. " !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/954/content_2018-05-30_1459.png) Bitcoin ETF the Holy Grail for a Cyclical Multi-Year Bull Run It is precisely from this last chart above that leads Nicholas to believe we are on the verge of a resurgence in commodity prices. Not only that but amid the need of all this capital to exit stocks and to a certain extent risky bonds (Italian), a new commodity-based digital currency ETF based on Bitcoin will emerge in 2018. The author of Datadash highlights the consideration to launching a Bitcoin ETF by the SEC. At CoinLive, our reporting of the subject can be found below: "Back in April, it was reported that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has put back on the table two Bitcoin ETF proposals, according to public documents. The agency is under formal proceedings to approve a rule change that would allow NYSE Arca to list two exchange-traded funds (ETFs) proposed by fund provider ProShares. The introduction of an ETF would make Bitcoin available to a much wider share of market participants, with the ability to directly buy the asset at the click of a button, essentially simplifying the current complexity that involves having to deal with all the cumbersome steps currently in place." Nicholas refers to the support the Bitcoin ETF has been receiving by the Cboe president Chris Concannon, which is a major positive development. CoinLive reported on the story back in late March, noting that "a Bitcoin ETF will without a doubt open the floodgates to an enormous tsunami of fresh capital entering the space, which based on the latest hints by Concannon, the willingness to keep pushing for it remains unabated as the evolution of digital assets keeps its course." It has been for quite some time CoinLive's conviction, now supported by no other than Nicholas Merten from Datadash, that over the next 6 months, markets will start factoring in the event of the year, that is, the approval of a Bitcoin ETF that will serve as a alternative vehicle to accommodate the massive flows of capital leaving some of the traditional asset classes. As Nicholas suggests, the SEC will have little choice but to provide alternative investments. Bitcoin as a Hedge to Lower Portfolios' Volatility Last but not least, crypto assets such as Bitcoin and the likes have an almost non-existent correlation to other traditional assets such as stocks, bonds, and commodities, which makes for a very attractive and broadly-applicable diversification strategy for the professional money as it reduces one’s portfolio volatility. The moment a Bitcoin ETF is confirmed, expect the non-correlation element of Bitcoin as a major driving force to attract further capital. Anyone Can BeWrongDatadash, But You Won't be Wrong Alone Having analyzed the hypothesis by Nicholas Merten, at CoinLive we believe that the conclusion reached, that is, the creation of a Bitcoin ETF that will provide shelter to a tsunami of capital motivated by the diversification and store of value appeal of Bitcoin, is the next logical step. As per the timing of it, we also anticipate, as Nicholas notes, that it will most likely be subject to the price action in traditional assets. Should equities and credit markets hold steady, it may result in a potential delay, whereas disruption in the capital market may see the need for a BTC ETF accelerate. Either scenario, we will conclude with a quote we wrote back in March. "It appears as though an ETF on Bitcoin is moving from a state of "If" to "When." Datadash is certainly not alone on his 50k call. BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes appears to think along the same line. On behalf of the CoinLive Team, we want to thank Nicholas Merten at Datadash for such enlightening insights.
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